Special results of the 2024 European Parliament elections

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Different from others

If the indicators are not deceiving, the European Parliament elections in 2024 will be different from the previous ones. Not only in the Netherlands, but also in most other EU countries.

The turnout rate in the 2019 elections in Europe was 51% higher than the previous three elections for this parliament in this century. Voter turnout in the Netherlands in 2019 at 41% was the highest since 1989. This appears to be related to the leadership of Frans Timmermans in the PvdA in 2019. As a result, the PvdA's voter turnout was higher than that of other parties. Participation in the PvdA party doubled compared to the state elections three months ago. (19% vs. 9%). However, the turnout was clearly lower than in local and district elections in the Netherlands.

This low turnout was partly because many did not consider the importance of the European Union important enough to have any form of influence on it by casting a vote.

Politics in Brussels plays a key role on migration/asylum and climate issues in EU countries. During national elections, such as the one we had on November 22 last year, but also as will become clear in other countries this year, there are significant shifts to the right under the influence of these issues. There is a good chance that these two topics will also play a leading role in the European Parliament elections, and this could clearly have a positive impact on turnout.

And in the Netherlands more than in any other country, because either a new government that includes the Freedom Party took office at the beginning of June or not, or there is no government yet. Either way, it will be an incentive for voters to express their opinions/feelings through the ballot box. This is possible during the European Parliament elections that will be held in more than 4 months.

Result prediction for all Europe

One European think tank predicted the outcome if all countries were taken together, based on a model and research in 11 countries. There was an article about this and this chart in De Volkskrant.

He. She The original article can be found here With estimates of the results for each country separately. As for the Dutch figures, this is more or less consistent with the current electoral situation. In that overview, the PVV holds 10 of the 29 seats. These are the calculations I reach based on the November 2023 election results and current electoral relationships.

Based on 29 seats, the electoral share is approximately 3.5%. Parties that do not achieve this do not get a seat. We know that there are only six parties that reached more than the electoral quota on 22 November 2022. This applies, among other things, to the CDA, which gained 4 seats in the European Parliament in 2019, after reaching 12%. Based on current electoral relations, this is the estimate of the Dutch result in June

And even more to the right

If you examine the predictions in the model further and also compare them with the research done, it seems very likely that the trend across Europe will shift further to the right than indicated in the mentioned European seat distribution. There are many reasons for this:

• Research conducted by the European Think Tank Which also served as the basis for the prediction made in 11 countries, before October 7, 2023. Not only in the Netherlands, a fair number of center and center-right voters seem to have shifted (more) to the right.
• In a number of countries, important national or regional elections will be held before June 2024, such as Germany. Here too, the election campaigns and elections themselves seem likely to have a similar pattern to what happened in the Netherlands. Especially if immigration/integration plays a major role during the election campaign.
• The unrest in various countries, manifested, among other things, in farmer blockades and strikes, seems to be in the interest of the right-wing parties. It is not unlikely that these measures will be intensified before the June elections, and that they will take place in many countries. For example, June 4 has already been designated as a working day in this area.

Precisely because of these developments, it is very likely that voters in a good number of countries will view European Parliament elections as a means of expressing their dissatisfaction. Whereas in the past, at least in the Netherlands, voters who participated in European Parliament elections were mainly composed of voters with positive attitudes towards the EU, it now appears that a greater number of voters will vote on the basis of negative feelings towards the EU. As a result, the result may be more right-wing than the European think-tank expected.