“Scientific projections indicate that the intensification of these climatic effects will be strongly felt in developing countries,” the intelligence services report said.
Oxfam East Africa (CC BY 2.0)
Climate change will dramatically increase global tensions over the next 20 years. This came according to a large report issued by the intelligence services in the United States.
Individual US intelligence agencies have previously warned of the consequences of climate change, including on US military bases abroad. Now she has US National Intelligence Directorate Estimates of eighteen different services were collected in the first National Intelligence Estimate on Climate Change.
The 27-page document outlines the potential implications for the national security of the United States. The report sees three major risks if the world fails to work together.
geoengineering
Geopolitical tensions are likely to rise as countries increasingly argue over how to achieve the necessary emissions reductions. The debate is already raging over who should put in the most effort and who should pay for it. The report warns that countries will try to protect their economies and gain a technological advantage in the race to clean energy.
Geopolitical tensions will increase as countries increasingly argue over how to achieve the needed emissions reductions.
Geoengineering can also lead to significant tensions if countries decide to take drastic steps without consulting. Scientists in many superpowers are investigating the possibilities of, for example, adding aerosols to the stratosphere or minerals to the oceans. But the consequences can be dire for the entire region or even the entire world, and there are hardly any international agreements.
Conflicts
In addition, the increasing physical impacts of climate change will also increase tensions as countries take steps to protect their interests.
The report points, among other things, to the Arctic, where melting ice will open new shipping routes and countries will compete for access to new fishing grounds.
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On the other hand, in the Middle East and North Africa, conflicts are particularly at risk over water, because 60 percent of the water resources there cross borders. The Mekong Delta can also cause problems between China, Cambodia, and Vietnam.
immigration
“Scientific expectations indicate that the intensification of these climate impacts will be strongly felt in developing countries, which we believe are also the least able to adapt to such changes,” the report stated.
Instability in these countries and regions is likely to lead to migration and refugee flows.
Several countries in Africa will be hit hard, including Niger, Chad, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola, Ethiopia and Sudan. In Asia, Afghanistan, Burma, India, Pakistan and North Korea are particularly at risk. In Central America and the Caribbean, this includes Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua.
Instability in these countries and regions is likely to lead to migration and refugee flows.
A hack is needed
The report notes that the bleak picture of the future may still be inverted, for example through a major breakthrough in renewable energy or geoengineering.
Ironically, a major climate catastrophe could also have positive long-term consequences and lead to greater international cooperation.
