Exclusive Mexican Budget Sees Stronger Growth and Less Inflation in 2023 – In Project Form

The Treasury did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the forecast, which was in a draft paper and confirmed by two sources familiar with the matter.

The design was undated, but one individual said the numbers on it are current.

The department will present the official budget for 2023 to lawmakers in Congress late Thursday.

President Andes Manuel Lopez Obrador said on Tuesday that the budget would not include tax increases.

Mexico’s economy has outperformed some analysts who had previously forecast 2022, thanks to strong demand for its goods in the United States, the country’s main trading partner. Mexican exports and imports have reached record levels.

However, consumer spending has suffered from inflation that has reached its highest level in more than two decades.

The annual inflation rate is expected to decline to 3.2% by the end of 2023, in line with the Bank of Mexico’s forecast for the fourth quarter of next year. Also, headline inflation is expected to ease to 7.7% in December of this year, from more than 8.6% in the first half of August.

The figures showed that in 2023, the peso will average 20.6 per dollar, after 20.4 this year, while oil production is expected to rise to an average of 1.872 million barrels per day, from about 1.835 million barrels per day in 2022.

According to the draft forecast, Mexico will export an average of 784,000 bpd in 2023, up from about 950,000 bpd this year, as the government seeks to refine more of its crude domestically to make the country more self-sufficient.

These goals will depend heavily on the ability of state oil company Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex) to ramp up its refining operations.

Meanwhile, the draft said Mexican oil prices will average $68.7 a barrel in 2023, down from $93.6 this year.

The outlook for crude oil prices was “conservative,” according to one of the people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.