Everyone knows that Turkey cannot do without the US and Europe, and Erdogan knows better than anyone
Europe must also accept it: there is no changing of the guard in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected on Sunday, so he will have to do business with him for the next five years, even though many European capitals have a tacit hope that Kemal Kılıçateroğlu will win the presidential election.
These did not go according to plan, ending the OSCE and Council of Europe observer mission. The President’s official duties and state funds were misused for campaigning. Including media bias and intimidation of supporters of the pro-Kurdish party HDP in particular, there are situations where democratic elections are virtually impossible.
But what are foreign governments to do with such care? The vote appears to have been free of large-scale fraud, as Turkish opposition parties also accepted the election result. Erdoğan is and will be the president, and that fact cannot be ignored.
About the author
Rob Wregan is a Turkey and Iran correspondent D Volkskrant. He lives in Istanbul. Prior to that, he served at the State Department, where he specialized in human rights, South Asia and the Middle East. He is a teacher A Pagan Job – Erdogan and the Failed Islamization of Turkey.
That is why on Monday morning congratulations poured in from all corners of the world to Ankara. US President Joe Biden said, “We look forward to continuing our work as NATO allies on bilateral issues and common global challenges.” EU leaders Charles Michel and Ursula von der Leyen also congratulated Erdogan. “I look forward to continuing to build EU-Turkey relations,” Van der Leyen said.
Congratulations Putin
Warm words also came from Moscow. President Vladimir Putin congratulated “my good friend” Tayyip Erdogan. The Russian leader praised his Turkish counterpart for his “efforts to strengthen the sovereignty of states and conduct an independent foreign policy.”
With those words, Putin once again rubbed it in with Erdogan’s NATO allies: the Turkish president can do without you if necessary. Erdogan sometimes uses the Russians to show that he does not need America and Europe.
His problem: everyone knows it’s not true, including Russians and Turks. Europe accounts for nearly half of their trade and three-quarters of foreign investment. They realize that their security is guaranteed by the NATO charter, not by the Kremlin’s geopolitical cynicism. Turkey cannot defy the laws of gravity that always pull it into Western influence.
Nevertheless, relations between Turkey and Europe in particular remain strained. Turkish membership of the EU is still a formal objective, but there is no longer any talk of it. Violations of constitutional freedoms in Turkey continue to chill European love for Ankara.
Turkey Agreement
The most important file is the 2016 agreement between Turkey and the European Union. For now it stands still. Turkey can make good use of European billions, and ‘opening the gates to Europe’ is no longer an issue. However, pressure is mounting on the Erdogan government to return refugees to Syria. Kilicadaroglu’s election campaign has further fueled xenophobic sentiments among the Turkish population. An EU-Turkey deal may not happen if the pressure is too high.
In this sense, Europe has reason to be relieved at the defeat of Klişataroğlu. His firm promise to voters to return all Syrian refugees within two years (even reduced to one year in the final week of the campaign) is difficult to reconcile with the Turkey deal.
Klişateroğlu did not make it clear in any way how he intended to guarantee a humanitarian return to Syria. Making deals with Assad? With the prospect of coming back under his rule, many Syrians might think: Better get on a boat to Europe.
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