El Niño Soy Crop Favorable for South America; The prospects for northern Brazil are less rosy

According to meteorologists and corn-pineapple analysts, the El Niño weather event should once again boost South American soybean production.

El Nino, a pattern that raises surface water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, will be mild to moderate in intensity, experts predict, improving the outlook for farmers in Brazil’s southern state of Rio Grande do Sul and neighboring Argentina. improve.

While Brazil could set a new soybean production record of around 160 million tonnes in the 2023/24 cycle, Argentina’s soy output will almost double, analysts said.

“This is a very classic El Niño, with above-average rainfall in the south of Brazil and below-average rainfall in the north and northeast,” said Luis Roque, analyst at Safras & Mercado.

According to US Department of Agriculture data, when rains return to Argentina, soybean production there will reach 45-48 million tons, Roque predicts, reaching 25 million tons in 2023.

If favorable weather conditions continue throughout the season, Brazil, Argentina and Paraguay will dominate global export markets. According to the USDA, by 2023/24 they could export a third of the world, an estimated 169 million tons.

Safras & Mercado’s Roque says Brazil could produce 163 million tonnes of soybeans in the season starting in September. But that forecast could be revised downwards based on signs that the northern part of Brazil, including parts of the Midwest and Southeast, could see below-average rainfall beginning in November.

“We are no longer working with the same yields as in the past for the Midwest and Southeast,” he said. “It doesn’t mean the harvest is failing, but the cards set off the alarm.”

Expectations for another bountiful year could keep soybean prices under pressure and limit soybean acreage growth.

Antonio Galvan, president of soybean farmers’ group Aprosoja Brasil, said farmers were unlikely to expand their plantings in recent years based on low prices. He added that the possibility of less rain in the northern parts of Brazil would reduce overall production.

Meteorologist Desiree Brandt said the most unsettled weather would mostly affect the northeast, including Brazil’s new agricultural frontier state known as Matopiba.

Although the climate there will not be ideal for crops this season, it will not be as dry as in 2015/16, when the drought caused major crop losses, Brandt said.

El Niño could bring spring rains to the Midwest when soybean planting begins, which could delay the start of seeding, meteorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos said.

“September rains very little,” Santos noted. (Reporting by Roberto Zamora in Sao Paulo Writing by Ana Mano Editing by Marguerita Choi)