The Alps have been under the wings of high pressure for more than a week. The weather will remain calm in the Alps for the next few days with sun in the mountains and Hochnibel in the valleys. Chances of rain increase in the second half of the week. Around Christmas, the softest and most humid air reaches the Alps – Weihnachtstauwetter.
todayAnd Sunday The atmosphere is calm in the Alps. In the mountains it shines brightly and the temperatures are above average. In the Eastern Alps, there is more wind and it can feel fresh, but there is little Hochnebel in the valleys. In contrast, in the Western Alps there is more Hochnebel in the valleys, but it will disappear during the day.
TomorrowAnd Monday Again a sign of high pressure. In the mountains it will be sunny again and in the valleys the day begins in many places with Hochnebel. There may be a shower in the far east of the Alps, but it will still be dry in most places. Although temperatures are above average, it can cool down significantly at night under clear skies thanks to the radiation.
In the second half of the week It looks like a change of weather is imminent. The area of high pressure above the Alps appears to be declining in strength, putting the Alps in the line of fire to create new disturbances.
Weihnachstauwetter in the long run
Weihnachstauwetter is called the “Christmas thaw” period and it can occur between December 24 and 29. Statistically speaking, a moderate and humid weather phase occurs regularly in this period. With the way weather maps look now, it seems likely that this singularity will reappear around the holidays.
However, global weather models are not at all unanimous. ECMWF comes with rainfall on Friday and Saturday. GFS comes in cool temperatures on Christmas Day and Alpine Boxing Day. The area of low pressure west of the Alps will provide a supply from the southwest. This will ensure a softer, more humid air. This will provide a lot of snow in the mountains, but the snowfall line is likely to be high.
This scenario is vigorously illustrated by GFS. The ECMWF explains this as well, but it has a later timing. According to the ECMWF, this will not happen until after Christmas. The difference between the models is significant, but it seems likely that there will be a milder weather phase. So much for the alpine weather forecast. Have a nice day from Innsbruck!
Roy graduated from Wageningen University. As a Bachelor, he completed the Soil, Water and Atmosphere course. During the master’s period he majored in hydrology and meteorology. Furthermore, he also followed several courses in Norway and did research on Spitsbergen. For Alpenweerman Roy, he writes weather reports for the Alps, gives weather lectures and does ski assessments.
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