This is how shiny Pokémon GO odds work (it’s not a guarantee)

When we share the odds of Pokémon GO happening at an event, we know we’ll always get the same responses:

This is bullshit, I have no shine at all

This information is incorrect, I did not have one of the 40

And more reactions like this. However, chances are always right. Especially with wild Pokemon, where these odds are determined by computers. For example, by comparing 100,000 catches. To provide more clarity on how Shiny Opportunities work in Pokémon GO, we’ve got an explanation below.

For the example below, increased probabilities of raids are used. The average chance of getting a shiny Pokémon GO is 1 in 10:

Let’s say you defeated and caught a Pokémon during the raid day. Then they often say that the chance is 1 in 10. This means that if you have a bucket and put all your Pokemon in it (nine regular and one shiny) you can grab it and possibly get the shiny Pokemon. If you take a Pokemon and it’s not shiny, you can throw the Pokemon back into the bucket and when you defeat another raid boss you can grab it again. So the chance is not higher than the first time and therefore still 90% that you will choose the matte one. Which you can throw back into the bucket and you’ll have to catch ten Pokémon again when you defeat the raid boss.

Many players expect that you should get it after ten times, but this is actually a misconception. Statistically, you should get it after about 25 times in the Raidy Day example, but the chance is still 10 percent because there are still ten Pokémon in that bucket.

This probability calculation is achieved by averaging all catches. So, when three, ten or even twenty players play together, it is not a good reflection. Only when thousands of players are compared with each other, is there a realistic chance that we often share. In addition, players sometimes have a lot of luck (for example, the first Pokémon spawns instantly). For every player who has a Shiny on the spot, the probability is that no Shiny is caught eighteen times to reach an average of 1 in 10 (as an example).

We realize that it is often unfair, for example, during a hunt day, where the chance was 1 in 10, of not getting a shine after 100 hunts. But in the end, it’s all about luck, because the chances are always the same. So no matter how many you catch.

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