America's correspondent Eric Muthan says: “If Trump wins significantly in the fifteen states that vote today, there is a good chance that he will declare himself the winner of the Republican Party nomination.” “His team is already hinting that it will be over after Tuesday, and Trump also appears to be running out of patience with pushing his only remaining rival out of the race.”
Haley needs to reconsider
Nikki Haley won only one of the ten areas where voting has taken place so far, which is the city of Washington. If we believe the polls, she would not get more than 40% of the vote anywhere today. Mothan: “At some point, she's going to have to admit that it's no longer statistically possible to overtake Trump. Super Tuesday is often the moment when a candidate makes a decision about the future of the campaign.”
In the American system, Republicans and Democrats go to the polls state after state to express their preference for the party leader, i.e. the candidate for president. Each state may then send a number of delegates to the party convention in July where the “candidate” is officially hoisted into the saddle.
Less exciting
Trump is performing well in the states voting today: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.
“Super Tuesday is less exciting this year than it was in previous elections,” Mothan says. “We already know how it will end: Trump will win by a large majority and will approach the required majority of delegates.”
But he will pay attention to the results. “Haley's nomination no longer has a chance of succeeding, but it reveals that a large number of Republicans have no interest in four more years of Trump in power. And if these right-wing voters stay home during the 'real' elections in November, the GOP is in big trouble.”
Democrats vote too
Joe Biden is also on the ballot on Super Tuesday. Democratic voters in big states like Texas and California have the opportunity to deny Joe Biden the nomination if they wish. But there are no serious opponents in the battle for the Democratic nomination because most political leaders abstained from participating.
“Biden received between 81 and 94 percent of the votes in the states that voted earlier, so his victory seems certain,” Mothan says. “Many Democrats may be concerned about Biden's health now that he is 81, but they are generally satisfied with his policies. It is also tradition in the United States for his party to renominate an incumbent president.”
Results at night
Due to the time difference between the Netherlands and the United States, polling stations close when the Dutch are asleep. “And in California and Alaska, you may have to wait for the results.” But the reporter promises: “By the time you wake up again on Wednesday, we will have a much better picture of the political future of the most powerful nation on Earth.”
