Next year warmer than 2023? “We look intently at the oceans”

A quick look at the past year. The average temperature was 1.48 degrees higher than it was in the pre-industrial era, roughly between 1850 and 1900. So, 2023 was “an extraordinary year, with climate records falling like dominoes,” says Deputy Director Samantha Burgess of the European Copernicus Climate Service.

2023 flew by the wayside

The video below makes the warming quite clear. The green circle is the pre-industrial temperature. The outer edge temperature rises by 1 degree on average. Last year has literally gone by the wayside.

“The temperature in 2023 will probably be higher than at any other time in the past 100,000 years,” Burgess says in Copernicus.

Boy

But was that bragging? surplus? 2024 will be colder, right? That may be so, however: “There is a good chance that 2024 will once again be the warmest year on record. These records will be broken again,” says Martin van Aalst, director of the KNMI.

This is by no means certain, but what scientists agree on is that the El Niño climate phenomenon will also leave its mark in 2024. Climate researcher Andrew Kruczkiewicz of Columbia University says that this will lead to higher temperatures around the world. D Washington Post.

El Niño is causing the Pacific Ocean to warm, but there are more consequences. What exactly is El Niño and what can be done can be seen below:

Temperature rise in 2024 is likely to exceed 1.5 degrees, the British Met Office KNMI believes. This means that the Paris Agreement will be bypassed – by at least a year. It is still too early to conclude that we have not achieved the Paris Agreement. To achieve this, the temperature rise must be higher than 1.5 degrees over a longer period.

Oceans create stress

Van Aalst also believes it is not impossible that temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees next year, although he does not want to focus on that. Because if we exceed that degree and a half, it does not mean that all is lost. “It's not the abyss you're coming off of. Only in the long run will we see what it means to cross that step and a half.”

What Van Aalst will watch with extra interest in 2024 is the heat in the oceans. “We're looking at this with some nervousness. It's happening faster than we expected and we don't exactly understand it. The ice is melting faster, especially in Antarctica.”

'Great care'

Van Aalst explains that Antarctica had never been looked at with so much attention before. It was very cold there, and if it got a little warmer, the ice would always remain intact. This does not appear to be the case now. “That's a big concern for us as well. Then sea level rise could accelerate.”

Below you see a graph of how warm the oceans are compared to other years.

Climate expert Helen Ecker of RTL Nieuws also says some experts expect the temperature in 2024 to be 1.5 degrees warmer on average compared to pre-industrial times, 150 years ago. “This has already been the case for about half a year in 2023. If warming exceeds 1.5 degrees, measured over several full years, scientists fear serious and potentially irreversible consequences for Earth, such as further melting of large ice caps and increased extreme events.” . weather.”

Regarding climate action, Ecker says countries will continue their efforts to combat climate change. It could also be the year in which China's greenhouse gas emissions peak, and after that Carbon dioxide emissions will slowly decline.

China

Ecker: “This is because of the tremendous growth in China of electricity from renewable sources, especially solar and wind energy. Electricity generation from hydropower plants may be on the rise again after a number of dry years.”

Over the past two decades, China's emissions have continued to increase almost every year, due to the burning of fossil fuels and the use of cement. “Since this has made China the world's largest emitter in years, it will be an important moment if that country can actually peak its emissions and then reduce them.”

The fact that China is the largest emitter can be seen below:

But this is by no means certain, because China's oil demand will also increase significantly in 2023. Ecker: “In addition, coal remains an important source of electricity generation. So we will have to wait and see. What is certain is that climate experts will “They can breathe a sigh of relief if greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere at least around the world are no longer increasing.” And then the decline begins.”