Do Democrats have a chance to win re-election with Kamala Harris? | RTL news

Followers of American politics have already marked August 19 on their agenda: it is clear whether Kamala Harris will replace Joe Biden as the presidential candidate during the Democratic convention.

According to experts, the chances are high. “She has the best credentials for the role,” said American expert Cox Donders. “As vice president, she’s already the leading Democratic candidate after Biden.” Also, several prominent politicians have immediately endorsed Harris.

Formally speaking, Democrats can invite other candidates to apply for office and then democratically select them. But no one else will register, thinks American expert Frans Verhagen, who has written a book on the history of the US presidency. “If this had happened a year ago, there would have been other people in the race. But now they don’t want to blow their guns, so they still have a chance at the presidential election in 2028.”

To avoid reputational damage, Democrats would be wise not to become too divided. “The last thing the party needs right now is confusion. People are getting the impression that the party doesn’t know what it wants,” Donders said.

Rare

Biden rarely quit. This happened 50 years ago. In 1968, then-President Lyndon B. Johnson decided to drop out of the race for another post after his popularity plummeted.

In total, a different presidential candidate than expected has been inaugurated seven times earlier in US presidential history. Twice before, the expected candidate withdrew as popular influence collapsed. In other cases, the party appointed someone else.

These historical moments do not bode well for Democrats. In only one of these seven cases did the party with the replacement presidential candidate win the election, namely in 1856.

However, candidates have never before withdrawn at such a late stage. “In that sense, we’re entering new territory,” says Verhagen. “The campaign is going to be much more intense now than when those two old men are facing each other.”

What do the polls say?

In the current state Surveys Harris is doing slightly better than Biden. He will get about 46 percent of the vote, compared to Biden’s 44 percent.

However, that’s lower than Trump, who currently has 48 percent of the vote, and the percentages vary from poll to poll. According to Verhagen, that doesn’t mean anything yet because Harris can only start the campaign now. “Polls should be taken with a big bag of salt in any case, but especially at this point.”

Harris is expected to perform particularly well among young people, women and non-whites. Donors: “People who really want something other than an old, white man. He appeals to people who want to see themselves represented in the White House.”

In this video, reporter Sophie van der Meer explains who Harris scored best with:

Those are precisely the voters Democrats need most. Democrats have always held a large advantage among black voters, but the share of those planning to vote for Trump has increased in recent years. Surveys. Harris could better reach those voters.

He will turn away some more voters. “There are Americans who are racist, consciously or unconsciously, and they don’t want to vote for a black person,” Verhagen says. “Certainly not on a black woman.”

The United States has never had a female president, and some conservative voters are unwilling to vote for a woman on principle. This also played a role when Hillary Clinton ran for office in 2016.

running mate

Who Harris becomes vice president also matters running buddy, He will actually choose whether to be nominated as the presidential candidate. “It would really help his candidacy if he chose a conservative-looking candidate who has made his mark in politics,” Donders said. “Probably a white guy. It pains me to say it out there, but I think she’d hurt her chances if she chose another woman.”

Check out our video on Kamala Harris below:

Many names have already come up, mainly governors in important states. For example, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is mentioned, as is North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. Both are so-called popular democrats Swing StatesIt can contribute to democratic gains in those states.

Swing States

As always they will Swing States Make a difference during elections. Regardless of who the candidate is, about 46 percent of voters choose Democrats and 46 percent choose Republicans. Moderate Americans in the middle, who do not adhere to a party, decide in each election which party best suits their situation, and who ultimately wins.

That’s why turnout is so important, especially among these voters. Enthusiasm to come out to vote for Trump was and remains high, and that will not change. But Harris could sway some Democratic voters with more enthusiasm than Biden.

“I think the potential loss of racist or sexist voters will be more than offset by the excitement that Harris might inspire in some voters,” Verhagen says. “Like women in the suburbs, who might have stayed home if Biden had been the candidate.”

A narrow victory

This last minute change of guard has made the election sensational again. “With Biden, the Democrats don’t stand a chance,” Verhagen thinks. Now there is a chance to win again.

According to Verhagen, that’s a good chance because Harris could be a better candidate than Biden, at least in the debates. “With his experience as a lawyer and as a senator, he can beat Trump significantly,” he says. And he can claim Biden’s legacy of being considered a successful president because he accomplished so much, especially in his first two years.

It’s sure to be a neck-and-neck race. Whether Kamala Harris wins in the coming weeks will depend on whether she will win over the many voters who are not ready to defeat Trump.