But not all sectors benefit and there is permanent damage.
As the last of the top three banks, Rabobank now also expects an economic recovery in 2021, while the economy continues to shrink in the first quarter as a result of the shutdown.
Rabobank predicts: “Our economy is expected to grow by 2.1 per cent this year, after contracting by 3.8 per cent in 2020. Dutch GDP growth is expected to reach 3.7 per cent in 2022.”
This means that economic activity at the end of this year will return to pre-Corona levels. We expect the Dutch economy to return to its structural growth path by 2022, but we still expect relatively high YoY growth of 3.7 percent. This is because catch-up growth for 2021 will still influence 2022 numbers.
Earlier this month, ABN Amro also predicted that the economy will recover this year. Pot savings will open later this year, according to ABN Amro. This will boost the growth numbers significantly, albeit to a less abundant degree than some had hoped. Only at the end of 2021 will the economy return to the level it was before the Corona crisis (last quarter of 2019).
Last fall, ING Economics Department ING was the first to call for a recovery for 2021. “The Dutch economy is expected to grow by 2.6% in 2021. This means that the GDP in the last quarter of 2021 will return to 99 per cent of the level. Which it was before the Corona crisis. “
The recovery is also occurring in other countries, according to Rabobank. “The Netherlands is keeping pace with Germany. Our country is expected to see its economy recover a little later than the United States, but ahead of France, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.”
However, banks are warning that the economic recovery will not be a “it will end well, okay” story. ABN Amro cautions that “lost growth will only be compensated to a limited extent, resulting in permanent damage”.
Rabobank refers to the hospitality industry, which will grow by seven percent this year, but that does not compensate for the loss of two-thirds of the turnover in the sector. Recovery just happens. 2022. Other sectors will not benefit immediately either.
“A full recovery for travel agencies is still on the horizon. Because it will likely take a long time before (international) tourism is fully recovered. In general, other business services sector will likely not fully recover until 2022.”
The transport sector is also unlikely to recover from the contraction caused by Corona this year. This is largely due to air transport, which, like travel agencies, continues to suffer from a decline in tourism. “
ING indicates high unemployment. As the economy grows, unemployment will continue to rise in 2021 and income development will deteriorate as a late result of the previous economic downturn. As a result, the economic consequences of Coronavirus will be felt by many more families, despite the growth, more than they were in 2020. ‘
