Ukraine has only 30 to 45 days before weather conditions hamper a counterattack. This is what one of the most important commanders of the US Army, Mark Milley, told the BBC. For example, Ukraine will have to deal with a “weather deadline.”
However, former army commander Mart de Kruif supports this statement. Although Ukraine will indeed face difficulties due to poor terrain due to bad weather, the offensive does not depend on this “hard deadline.” “Moreover, Ukraine’s attacks are not about mechanized and armored units, but about infantry actions,” explains de Kruif. “You can keep it up longer; All winter, in fact.
According to international relations researcher Laurieanne Crump from Utrecht University, Milley’s statements should also be viewed in a broader context. “Although he stated that Ukraine still had between 30 and 45 aircraft to go before weather conditions would likely change, in the same interview he stressed that Ukraine had already made steady progress,” she said.
However, Millie believes her words were carefully chosen. With these statements, Milley emphasizes the urgency that makes the conflict in Ukraine – despite the earthquake that struck Morocco, for example – at the top of the agenda.
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But there is another side to that coin. Russia will also benefit from such statements in order to raise morale on its side. And they will have to, because Russia currently has enough problems of its own. “The fact that things are about to change again is not news to Russians,” she says. “So in this regard it will not be decisive for Russia, although they will put their own point of view on it in terms of framing,” he added.
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Especially considering the different ways in which Russians and Ukrainians will face the same weather conditions. Crump: “The Ukrainians really want to take back territory, and it’s hard to make progress if you get your wheels stuck in the mud instead of just defending positions like the Russians do.”
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