This new tool should better appreciate the Corona pandemic in Europe - Science

This new tool should better appreciate the Corona pandemic in Europe – Science

A new tool from the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control should be able to more accurately estimate how the epidemic has developed in Europe – and thus Belgium as well -.

In collaboration with the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a tool to more accurately estimate the short-term development of the Coronavirus. pandemic.

De tool, die u via this link , Takes the average of a series of models that estimate the short and long-term development of the number of injuries and deaths. By combination, ECDC Bias, tendency From those discrete models to a minimum.

According to Sebastian Funk, who studies infectious disease dynamics as a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the collaboration provides a more accurate prediction. By creating a group or group, we can use the contribution of all models to make estimates as accurate as possible. Biostatistician Niel Hens (UHasselt), whose model will also be added to the tool in the future, believes that the initiative could be very beneficial, although “ the global model that takes the average of individual models still needs to be matured and refined to some degree. “.

The number of injuries

What will the aggregate model forecasts learn over the next four weeks in Belgium, and now that mitigation – depending on how the numbers evolve or not – is on the way? Compared to the last reference period, the week ending April 17, when 24,513 confirmed infections were recorded, that number is expected to decrease over the next four weeks to 17,068 in the week ending May 15 – which is good for an average of around 2,440 infections. in a day.

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According to EuroCOVIDhub Group forecasts, the number of confirmed infections is likely to decrease in the next four weeks. © ECDC

Note, however, that the 95 percent confidence interval (CI) illustrates how fragile estimates are and that estimates must be taken with great caution. At best, the number will drop to 6,450, but in the worst case, the numbers will rise to 44,467 infections by the week of May 15, according to the comprehensive model.

Almost all individual models assume that there will be a drop. Medical services firm IEM Health only expects 25,568 infections to be diagnosed in the week beginning May 15 – slightly more than the week of April 17.

Death cases

What about the number of deaths? In the week before April 17th, there were 290 deaths from covid-19 in Belgium.

Here too, the combination of all models predicts a decline in the next four weeks, although there is significant uncertainty on that with a 95 percent confidence interval. In the week before May 15, the number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths will drop to 190.

No single model expects an increase in the number of deaths within four weeks compared to the week of April 17. Only in IEM Health the number of deaths drops until the week of May 5 and then rises again slightly to a weekly total of 276 deaths.

According to forecasts by EuroCOVIDhub, the number of confirmed deaths is likely to decline over the next four weeks.
According to forecasts by EuroCOVIDhub, the number of confirmed deaths is likely to decline over the next four weeks. © ECDC

In collaboration with the Center for Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a tool to more accurately estimate the short-term development of the COVID-19 virus. pandemic. The tool, which you can find at this link, takes the average of a series of models that estimate the short and long term evolution of the number of injuries and deaths. By combining, the ECDC attempts to reduce the bias from those separate models. According to Sebastian Funk, who studies infectious disease dynamics as a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, the collaboration provides a more accurate prediction. By creating a group or group, we can use the contribution of all models to make estimates as accurate as possible. Biostatistician Niel Hens (UHasselt), whose model will also be added to the tool in the future, believes that the initiative could be very beneficial, although “ the global model that takes the average of individual models still needs to be matured and refined to some degree. Number of injuries What will the combined model forecast for the next four weeks in Belgium learn, and now this mitigation – depending on how the numbers evolve or not – are on the way? Compared to the last reference period, the week ending April 17, when 24,513 confirmed injuries were recorded, This number is expected to decline over the next four weeks to 17,068 injuries in the week ending May 15 – which is good for an average of about 2,440 injuries per day. Note, however, that the 95 percent confidence interval shows just how fragile the estimates are. Estimates should be taken with extreme caution.At best, the number will drop to 6,450, but in the worst case, the numbers will rise to 44,467 infections by the week beginning May 15, according to the global model.Almost all individual models assume there will be a decline. Expecting services company Medical IEM Health only diagnosed 25,568 infections in the week beginning May 15 – slightly more than the week of April 17th. Deaths and what about the number of deaths? In the week before April 17th, there were 290 COVID-19 deaths in Belgium. Here too, the combination of all models predicts a decline in the next four weeks, although there is significant uncertainty on that with a 95 percent confidence interval. In the week before May 15, the number of confirmed COVID-19 deaths is expected to drop to 190. No single model predicts an increase in the number of deaths within four weeks of the week of April 17th. Only in IEM Health the number of deaths drops until the week of May 5 and then rises again slightly to a weekly total of 276 deaths.

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