The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has once again revised its forecast global ending stocks of wheat for 2023/2024. With a decrease of 0.6 million tons, the forecast is 258.8 million tons. This is the lowest level since 2015/16. In addition, global primary stocks decreased slightly, by 0.1 million tons to 271.1 million tons.
This is evident from the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published by the USDA last weekend. The USDA attributes the decline in theoretical ending stocks for 2023/2024 mainly to Canada and Ukraine.
Furthermore, the USDA increased global wheat production by 1 million tons to 786.7 million tons for 2023/2024. This is mainly because production in China and Australia is expected to be higher. In terms of global consumption, the USDA now estimates 799 million tons, 1.5 million tons more than in the February WACID report.
According to the USDA, this is mainly due to higher feed and residual use in the European Union, Kazakhstan and Indonesia. Moreover, global wheat trade rose by 1.4 million tons to 212.1 million tons due to higher exports from Ukraine, Australia and Turkey.
