Professor Martin Hoogeveen of the Open University expects the number of coronavirus infections to drop sharply within a few weeks.
Hoogeveen said this Wednesday on the L1 show Evening guests: Corona in Limburg.
“I expect the curve of corona incidence to fall sharply, which makes us think in a few weeks: What is going on?”
To investigate
Hoogeveen has done several studies and compared the average flu course to last year’s Covid cycle. This shows a number of things, Hoogevin says. “Downward trends are coming in time, outside the classic and peak flu season. Statistically speaking, the flu starts in the middle of summer, although many people think it is in the winter. Spring (week 10 onwards) is another turning point) And it’s the end of the flu season. ”
R number
The professor predicts that flu infection rates may drop precipitously as the flu season ends. “Last year the Corona virus also reached the end of the flu season and we expect the same this year. I expect the numbers to decrease, and I expect the decline to start no later than mid-April. Last year you saw a strong decline.”
According to Hughfen, this also leads to a decrease in the number R. “The number of reproductions is much less than one and you see the curve drop sharply. This reaches a level that makes us think in a few weeks, what is happening? This is a risk as well.” According to Hughfen, there is only one option that prevents this deterioration, and that is that some mutations become more contagious.
RIVM
Roel Coutinho, former director of RIVM, asks about the studies Hogevin conducted, “I think it’s great to do those studies, but they’re optimistic, because there are unconfirmed factors. This is a respiratory infection, so it’s not the flu. Optimism. I don’t want to take responsibility.” The fact that things will get better in April. I don’t really dare support such a statement, ”says predecessor Jaap Van Dessel.
