Severe, slow summer storms such as those over the Ardennes will increase fourteen times more in Europe by the end of this century. This is according to British research.
Scientists from Newcastle University and the British Met Office came to this conclusion based on detailed climate models. They found that slower-moving storms increase local precipitation, which greatly increases flash flood risks.
studying, Published in Geophysical Research Letters, constitutes the second link between climate change and heavy precipitation. It was previously known that the atmosphere at higher temperatures could store more water vapor and thus cause more rain. It now appears that slow-moving storms will increase in frequency 14 times by the year 2100. For example, heavy rain can ravage the same area for much longer.
wake cry
The study authors explicitly refer to the catastrophic rainfall in Belgium and Germany when the report was published. “This study shows that in addition to precipitation intensification, one can also expect a significant increase in slow-moving storms that have the potential for high precipitation concentrations.” Met Office Professor Lizzie Kendon says when the study is published. “This is closely related to the recent floods in Germany and Belgium, which highlight the devastating effects of such slow-moving storms.”
Her colleague Hayley Fowler is associated with greenhouse gas emissions. “This, in addition to the current floods in Europe, is the wake-up call we need to develop improved warning and management systems,” he says. “And to account for climate change more in infrastructure designs, so that we can make them more robust in the face of such extreme weather conditions.”
For the forecast, the researchers hypothesize a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions remain high. “The 14-fold increase in the frequency of storms by the end of this century is an example of the dangerous impact we could feel if we didn’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” Fowler says.
Scientists from Newcastle University and the British Met Office came to this conclusion based on detailed climate models. They found that slow-moving storms increase local precipitation, which greatly increases flash flood risk. The study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, provides a second link between climate change and heavy precipitation. It was previously known that the atmosphere at higher temperatures could store more water vapor and thus cause more rain. It now appears that slow-moving storms will increase in frequency 14 times by the year 2100. For example, heavy rainfall could affect the same region for much longer. The study authors clearly mention catastrophic rainfall in Belgium and Germany when the report is published. “This study shows that in addition to precipitation intensification, we can also expect a significant increase in slow-moving storms that have the potential for high precipitation concentrations,” said Lizzie Kendon, a Met Office professor, in publishing the study. This is closely related to the recent floods in Germany and Belgium, which highlight the devastating effects of such slow-moving storms. ” Her colleague Hayley Fowler links it to greenhouse gas emissions. “This, in addition to the current floods in Europe, is the wake-up call we need to develop improved warning and management systems,” he says. “And to account for climate change more in infrastructure designs, so that we can make it more robust in the face of such extreme weather conditions.” For the forecast, the researchers hypothesize a scenario in which greenhouse gas emissions remain high. “The 14-fold increase in the frequency of storms by the end of this century is an example of the dangerous impact we could feel if we didn’t reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” Fowler says.
